Projected vs. Official Election Results: What’s the Difference?

A news organization’s projection or race call is its own assessment of the outcome. Official election results are the results election authorities produce through the processes required by state and local law. The two can occur at different times because they serve different purposes: a newsroom informs the public about its assessment, while officials tabulate, reconcile, canvass and certify votes.

The U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC) says election-night results are not final, even when media organizations call a projected winner. Only election officials provide official results. ([eac.gov](https://www.eac.gov/election-officials/election-results-canvass-and-certification))

News organizations use terms such as projected winner, race call and declared winner. These are newsroom labels, not a substitute for the state’s official canvass or certification. The wording and methods can vary by organization, so a reader should check which outlet made the call and how that outlet describes its process.

A newsroom may assess whether the candidate currently behind could still catch up, considering reported vote totals and what ballots may remain. The exact information and decision rules differ. For example, The Associated Press says its decision team examines its vote count, estimates of outstanding ballots, voting patterns and state-specific election rules. AP calls a race only when it concludes the trailing candidate has no path to win, and it says it does not make projections. That is AP’s description of AP’s process—not a universal rule for every newsroom. ([ap.org](https://www.ap.org/the-definitive-source/behind-the-news/how-does-ap-call-races/))

A projection is not itself a ballot count, a legal ruling or an act by an election office. It is a published editorial assessment based on the organization’s reporting and analysis. A responsible report identifies the organization behind the call rather than presenting it as an official government announcement.

Election officials first publish preliminary results as ballots are counted. Those totals can be updated as officials process eligible ballots and reconcile the records. The EAC describes the canvass as a process for aggregating and confirming valid ballots, including mail, early, Election Day, provisional, and uniformed and overseas citizen ballots. Certification comes after required steps are completed; the responsible officials and sequence vary by jurisdiction. ([eac.gov](https://www.eac.gov/election-officials/election-results-canvass-and-certification))

There is no single nationwide certification calendar for every contest. State and local laws set procedures and deadlines, and the certifying authority can differ by office and jurisdiction. The National Association of Secretaries of State’s state-by-state overview also documents variation in canvass timelines and recount rules. For a particular election, use the relevant state or local election office’s information rather than assuming one state’s calendar applies elsewhere. ([eac.gov](https://www.eac.gov/election-officials/election-results-canvass-and-certification))

Certification is an official accounting under those rules; it does not mean a news organization’s earlier call was itself official. Nor should the terms be collapsed into one another: preliminary returns, a newsroom’s call, a canvass, a certification and any recount are distinct parts of the broader process.

Election officials and news organizations work toward different milestones. A newsroom may conclude that the outstanding vote cannot change the apparent outcome before all administrative steps are complete. Officials, by contrast, must complete the applicable procedures before results are certified. A projection can therefore precede certification without replacing it.

The gap can be especially visible in close contests. The margin may be small compared with the number of ballots still to be counted, or officials may still be processing ballots allowed under state rules. The EAC notes that election-night totals can change as officials count eligible ballots, including provisional, absentee and mail ballots and ballots cast by military and overseas voters. States differ in their rules for when some ballots may be counted or received. ([eac.gov](https://www.eac.gov/voters/voter-faqs))

A large number of precincts reported—or a results page showing 100% of precincts reporting—does not, by itself, mean every ballot has been counted or results certified. Precinct-reporting indicators describe reporting progress, not necessarily completion of every post-election step. The EAC specifically cautions that election-night results are not final. ([eac.gov](https://www.eac.gov/election-officials/election-results-canvass-and-certification))

A change in unofficial totals as counting continues is not, by itself, proof of wrongdoing. It can reflect the ordinary sequence in which different ballots are counted and reported. Likewise, a delay in certification does not alone establish that something improper happened; the timing depends on the procedures and deadlines that apply.

At the same time, a projection should not be mistaken for a guarantee that official totals can never differ. A newsroom’s assessment uses information available at that time, while officials continue the count and complete required checks. The EAC notes that a recount may occur under state rules and can change official results. ([eac.gov](https://www.eac.gov/voters/voter-faqs))

For consequential or disputed claims, look for the underlying record: the election office’s posted returns, statements describing what remains to be counted, canvass materials, certification documents and any recount or court records. A projection alone does not establish those facts.

When you see a candidate described as the winner, check whether the report says projected, called by a named news organization, or officially certified. Those labels describe different things. Then look for the outlet’s attribution and the official election office’s results page for recorded totals and certification updates.

For the official source, start with the state or local election office responsible for the contest. The EAC provides links to state and territory election websites and explains that final results are posted after ballots are counted, reconciled and certified. ([eac.gov](https://www.eac.gov/voters/voter-faqs))

For more detail on what happens after election night, see <a href="/how-election-results-are-counted-and-certified">How U.S. Election Results Are Counted and Certified</a>.